Spain vs Argentina: The Final New York Has Been Waiting For

According to The Guardian, Spain arrive at tonight's World Cup final with a remarkable defensive record, having conceded just 0.31 expected goals per match across seven games, the best defensive consistency of any team in the tournament.

Argentina, however, bring their own threat. The Guardian notes that the South Americans have played an extra 60 minutes of football over the course of the tournament, logging 794 minutes compared to Spain's 717, raising questions about whether a squad four years older than their Qatar vintage has enough in reserve.

The data also points to the potential impact of substitutes. The Guardian highlights that Mikel Merino and Lautaro Martínez both carry elite conversion rates from limited sample sizes, suggesting a bench player could be the difference-maker in what Opta rates as a close contest, giving Spain a 45 percent chance in 90 minutes against Argentina's 26 percent.

One quirk the piece flags: Spain have played all their games indoors or in covered stadiums, making tonight's rare outdoor match at New Jersey an additional variable for Luis de la Fuente's side to manage.